Pakistan Faces 70 Million Diabetes Cases by 2050, Experts Warn

Pakistan could have as many as 70.2 million adults living with diabetes by 2050 unless effective measures are taken to slow the condition's rapid spread, health experts have warned. The country already ranks among the nations most affected by diabetes, with an estimated 34.5 million adults currently living with the condition. Of these, around 9.3 million — roughly 26.9 per cent — remain undiagnosed, meaning many people are unaware of the risks they face.

The warning came at a media roundtable organised by the Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH) to discuss the growing burden of the disease and the importance of identifying risk factors early. Specialists in endocrinology, vascular surgery and clinical nutrition outlined how screening, timely treatment and sustainable lifestyle changes can help reduce the impact on individuals and the healthcare system.

Dr. Asma Ahmed, a consultant endocrinologist at AKUH, explained that type 2 diabetes is not confined to older adults. She urged younger people with a family history of the condition or other risk factors to seek screening before symptoms appear. For those already diagnosed, she recommended taking medication as prescribed and attending regular follow-up appointments, while also emphasising sustainable lifestyle changes to help manage the disease and reduce complications.

The experts stressed that diabetes affects far more than blood sugar levels. Over time, it can damage blood vessels and nerves, increasing the risk of complications affecting the heart, kidneys, eyes and limbs. They noted that an apparently healthy body weight does not necessarily mean a person is free from risk, and that younger adults with excess abdominal weight or sedentary lifestyles can also be vulnerable.

Dr. Fareed Ahmed Shaikh, assistant professor and section head of vascular surgery at AKUH, highlighted the effects of diabetes on circulation and nerve function, particularly in the legs and feet. Reduced sensation can allow a small cut to go unnoticed, and when combined with poor blood circulation, this can develop into a serious wound.

AKUH's community-based Pakistan Diabetes Prevention Trial offered encouraging evidence on early intervention. After one year, 61 per cent of participants with prediabetes in the lifestyle intervention group had returned to normal blood sugar levels through simple changes tailored to their cultural context, demonstrating the value of practical, locally relevant measures.