Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources has reported that the discharge of the Chenab River (mainstem) has stabilised following a period of unusual fluctuations. Between December 10 and December 16, 2025, river flows dropped dramatically, with the lowest recorded discharge at 870 cusecs—well below the historical 10-year minimum range of approximately 4,018 to 4,406 cusecs for the same period.
Satellite imagery from December 8 showed a significant reduction in the surface area of India’s Baglihar reservoir, followed by an increase in surface area on December 13. The ministry indicated that this pattern suggests India may have temporarily emptied and then refilled the reservoir. Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India is prohibited from emptying the dead storage of run-of-river hydroelectric reservoirs on the Western Rivers. Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters has raised the issue with the Indian counterpart, requesting detailed data regarding the unusual decline in Chenab flows.
By December 17, 2025, the river’s hydrology began to improve, with flows rising to 6,399 cusecs, entering the historical 10-year range for the first time since the mid-December drop. Data from the Punjab Irrigation Department indicates that as of December 19, 2025, Chenab flows remain within the historical 10-year range, with readings between 4,505 and 6,494 cusecs, consistent with or exceeding seasonal averages. The ministry emphasized that river flows have now stabilised following the extraordinary reductions observed earlier in the month.
