The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not expect Pakistan’s recent floods to derail the country’s economic growth or revenue collection targets for the current fiscal year.
During a series of meetings in Islamabad, the IMF delegation informed Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb that, based on initial assessments, the economic impact of the floods appears to be limited outside of Punjab, as reported by the Express Tribune.
Provincial governments in Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) reported only modest losses, reducing the likelihood of any downward revision in national growth or revenue targets.
While the full extent of infrastructure damage in Punjab is still being evaluated, the IMF indicated it would wait for a comprehensive damage assessment before making any final judgments. For now, the global lender sees no reason to adjust its outlook for Pakistan’s tax revenues or economic growth.
The IMF also pressed the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to demonstrate tangible progress on its transformation plan, which was approved by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif last year with over Rs. 55 billion in funding. The plan aims to modernize tax administration and boost collections, but the FBR continues to struggle, especially as it races to meet its first-quarter target of Rs. 3.083 trillion.
Pakistan’s Planning Commission has estimated total economic losses from the floods at around Rs. 360 billion, roughly 0.3% of GDP. Despite these losses, the government remains confident it can achieve GDP growth in the range of 3.7% to 4%, just shy of its 4.2% target. Officials attribute this resilience in part to higher-than-expected sowing of rice and sugarcane, which is expected to offset crop losses elsewhere.
The IMF was also reassured that flood-related spending could be managed from existing contingency funds, with no immediate need for additional external resources. The current account deficit is not expected to widen, as the floods have not triggered a spike in imports.
However, the IMF did raise concerns about delays in the release of the Governance and Corruption Diagnosis Assessment report, which highlights persistent weaknesses in Pakistan’s judicial, administrative, and corporate sectors. Authorities promised to publish the report within the week and committed to addressing the IMF’s recommendations for improving the rule of law and institutional integrity.
In meetings with provincial officials, the IMF noted low spending on health and education last year. K-P authorities cited slow hiring as a reason for unfilled doctor positions, while Sindh and K-P estimated their flood-related economic losses at Rs. 40-50 billion and Rs. 30 billion, respectively. Both provinces said they could manage rehabilitation costs without additional federal support.
The situation in Punjab remains under review, with the province planning a comprehensive rehabilitation package for flood-affected communities. Its assessment will be crucial in shaping the final economic outlook.
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