Pakistan and India are set to face each other in a high-pressure encounter on Sunday, February 1, in what has effectively become a virtual knockout match for a place in the ICC Men’s Under-19 World Cup 2026 semi-finals. While fans are already speculating about a possible Pakistan versus India final, the likelihood of both teams qualifying from Super Six Group 2 remains slim, though still mathematically possible.
The qualification scenario largely depends on the outcome of the England versus New Zealand match scheduled for Friday, January 30. England currently top the Super Six group with an unbeaten record of three wins from three matches, including points carried forward from victories over Pakistan and Zimbabwe in the group stage.
If England defeat New Zealand, they will finish on eight points and secure a semi-final berth, leaving only one remaining spot available for either Pakistan or India. In this case, Pakistan would need not only to beat India but also to do so by a significant margin to overcome India’s superior net run rate and progress to the semi-finals.
However, if New Zealand manage to upset England, the situation changes dramatically. A New Zealand win would open the door for both Pakistan and India to qualify. Should Pakistan then beat India on Sunday, all three teams would finish on six points, with net run rate determining the top two sides.
At present, England have a net run rate of 1.989, Pakistan stand at 1.484, and India lead with a strong 3.337. Pakistan have a chance to boost their net run rate substantially with a dominant victory over India, which could allow them to edge past England and qualify for the semi-finals alongside India.
Although India currently enjoy the advantage in both points and net run rate, the gap is challenging but not insurmountable. If Pakistan bat first and score 300 runs, they would need to win by at least 85 runs to overtake India’s net run rate. If Pakistan bowl first and restrict India to 200, they would need to chase the target in approximately 31.5 overs. For a target of 251, Pakistan would need to complete the chase in around 33.2 overs to remain in contention for the semi-finals.
